Yes, Prime Minister! (episode one)

Theresa May: So, Brexit is Brexit! We have to make it a success!

Senior Civil Servant: Yes, Prime Minister!

TM: We need to start negotiations with the EU immediately and secure the best deal for the UK!

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister!

TM: And for that purpose we need to activate Art. 50 of the TEU, since the EU would not start negotiations without this step.

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister! We definitely need to activate Art. 50 for the start of the negotiations, but you need to know that after that we will be out of the EU within two years regardless whether we manage to achieve the best possible deal or not. In fact, we are going to be out, even if we end up without any deal at all.

TM: Well, this is tricky then. We need to tread carefully and prepare the ground for the Brexit better. So maybe it is a good idea to delay the triggering of Art. 50 with, say, six months?

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister!

TM: And within that time we need to convince our EU partners in informal talks that it is better for them to allow us to stay in the Single Market without accepting the freedom of movement of people.

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister! Although the EU already said that they are not going to have informal talks with us, especially on this issue.

TM: So what are we going to do during the six months then? It will be as if nothing happens at all, won’t it?

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister! But on the other hand, people will think that we are making everything possible to secure a smooth transition to a new global role. Markets will be calmer. Pressures on the pound will probably ease.

TM: But what will happen when the six months expire and we have to notify the EU? Isn’t it possible to have then a real meltdown of the stock market and a massive devaluation of the pound?

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister! It is very probable. Unless we agree very fast to have something like a Norwegian option, which will keep us in the Single Market. But then in practice everything will be pretty much the same indeed.

TM: Well, the difference will be that we are going to lose our voice in EU decision-making while continuing to contribute to its budget and observing its rules.

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister! Right on the spot!

TM: But surely this would make us look like idiots!

SCS: Yes, Prime Minister! You nailed it, Prime Minister!

(to be continued)